Happy new year, everyone! It’s still 2025 in Ohio as I’m writing this post, but not for much longer. I’ve decided to send off my blogging about Eurovision (for now) with something fun: an analysis of the results of the annual fan vote ESC250, specifically those for the entries of Basel 2025. The results were streamed on a French radio station on December 31, then once the stream ended the full results were published. Here are my votes with the position each song ended up in:

Here are my predictions of how high each entry would score:

And here is a spreadsheet comparing my predictions with the actual results:

I overestimated most of these predictions, as you can see here.  I got only six predictions correct, and that’s counting Iceland as close enough. I’ll go through these results bottom to top and discuss how well I did. Fun fact: 2023 had 26 out of 37 entries land in the top 250, 2024 had 29 out of 37 in the top 250, and 2025 had 25 out of 37 in the top 250. I’m referring to the respective ESC250 rankings for each year, just to be clear.

37: By this point, everyone knew that Azerbaijan, Run With U was the fan unfavorite of Eurovision 2025, so I’m not surprised it scored the lowest in the fan rankings. I was still a bit optimistic predicting it would rank between 400th and 500th; it landed at 654th place.

36: Georgia, Freedom is just a hair more popular, but not by much. I predicted it would land somewhere around 400th place and I wasn’t too far off; it landed 512th.

35: I never really understood why Serbia, Mila is so astoundingly unpopular, but that’s just how it is. My prediction was that it wuold land 150th to 250th, but it scored 506th so I was way off. I actually predicted most entries would land in the top 250, probably because in 2024 only eight entries didn’t.

34: I thought that Slovenia, How Much Time Do We Have Left? would have a decent shot at reaching the top 250 (around 100th to 150th) because Klemen has a decent fan following, but I was totally wrong. It landed only 495th, so the voters must have found this song as boring as I do.

33: I knew United Kingdom, What the Hell Just Happened? wouldn’t score that well in ESC250, but I somehow still overestimated it. I predicted 150th to 250th, but it landed at a measly 466th.

32: For some reason I thought that Ireland, Laika Party would score somewhere in the top 100, around 80th to 100th, because when I went to Basel I saw quite a lot of people who seemed to love the song. I’m very glad it landed outside the top 250 (at 346th place) because it means I didn’t have to hear that awful song again. I mean, I would’ve muted it anyway, but it’s still nice not to have to hear even a second of it.

31: On the other hand, I think it was reasonable to predict Armenia, Survivor would land in the top 250 (I said 75th to 100th), because I’ve grown to love that song. It’s so energetic and action-oriented and has an irresistible chorus. It landed outside the ESC250 at 323rd place, though 75-100th was a big overestimate regardless.

30: For San Marino, Tutta l’Italia, my prediction wasn’t too far off: 150th to 200th, and it landed at 317th, not far outside the top 250. I was hoping I’d hear that song in ESC250, but it wasn’t meant to be.

29: Boy was I optimistic about Czechia, Kiss Kiss Goodbye. My prediction was 50th to 75th, but it landed at 301st place. I guess I just overestimated how much fans would like it, just like I did during the leadup to Eurovision 2025.

28: I wasn’t too far off for Cyprus, Shh; I said it would land around 200th place, and it landed 284th. Still, I won’t count that as a correct prediction, since I feel it’s fair to interpret “around 200th” as between 150th and 250th. “Shh” is a perfect example of a song I want to hate but can’t. It’s overproduced and overstaged as hell, but also very fun to listen to.

27: Netherlands, C’est la vie: My prediction of 15th to 25th seems laughable compared to its result of 281st place, but I’m still quite surprised this landed outside the top 250. Even as we entered the top 100, I still suspected it would score a spot in the ESC250, but it narrowly didn’t. I suppose it’s more of a jury song than a televote song anyway.

26: Just like with the Eurovision results, I overestimated how much the ESC250 voters would like Australia, Milkshake Man. But my guess wasn’t all too far off: I guessed around 150th, the result was 274th. It’s somewhat televote-friendly, but only somewhat. I still love the song though.

25: Now we’re entering the songs that reached the top 250, starting with Montenegro, Dobrodošli which reached 217th place, a little bit before I woke up. I had a feeling the song would earn a modest placement within the top 250, and despite overestimating it (prediction: 100th to 150th), I got it reasonably close.

24: I way overestimated how the fan favorite non-qualifier Belgium, Strobe Lights would score. I predicted around 30th because the song is fucking awesome, but it landed only 189th. This was my first sign that my predictions were far too optimistic. I thought Belgium would score by far the highest of the non-qualifiers…

23: … but the highest of them was Croatia, Poison Cake at 164th. It’s also the first song to score higher than my prediction. I predicted that the song would land around 300th, but could land in the top 250 if lucky, and it did get lucky! Fun fact: in ESC250 2023, the highest non-qualifier of that year was “Aijā” at an impressive 31st, and in 2024 it was “Before the Party’s Over” at 94th. I do know there are some people who absolutely adore “Poison Cake”, one of whom was a fan I met in Basel.

22: Malta, Serving (Kant) was the first prediction I got right. I predicted it would land around 100th, and I was right since it scored 120th place. Felt good to get one correct!

21: After writing my predictions list, I realized I had very few in the 50-100th place range, but didn’t feel like revising them. Next time I predict ESC250 results (if Eurovision isn’t fucking dead by then), I’ll try not to neglect that range. Norway, Lighter I had predicted to land 30th to 50th, so its end result of 98th place wasn’t too far off. Still, not quite correct.

20: I was wildly optimistic about Ukraine, Bird of Pray, having predicted 10th to 25th, perhaps because it’s one of those songs I love more the more times I listen to it. It’s just so full of raw emotion and musical curveballs! It landed 92nd place and I feel it deserved to score a bit higher, but it doesn’t matter much. ESC250 is all just for fun.

19: I have to admit, I don’t hate Estonia, Espresso Macchiato as much as I used to, or at all really. It’s just a silly, goofy joke entry that isn’t bad at all to listen to. Still, its strangely huge televote result (much bigger in the final than in the semifinals) made me feel it would land much higher than it did. My prediction was 4th to 7th place, but amusingly it landed only 90th. This also meant Estonia would score the lowest of the three Baltic states, unless the ESC250 voters were to have no taste and ignore Latvia’s utter piece of beauty.

18: At 89th we have France, Maman which I predicted would land 20th to 30th. It’s strange that I predicted it this high, considering the televoters only gave it 50 points at Eurovision.

17: Spain, Esa diva is a similar story. Prediction, 8th to 15th; actual result, 88th. Spanish entries tend to do really well in ESC250, and I’m 99% sure that’s because of Spanish fans. In 2022, “SloMo” even managed to beat the usual annual winner “Euphoria”. “Esa diva” got a lower result than I expected, but I think the only reason it reached the top 100 at all is because of Spanish fans.

16: Luxembourg, La poupée monte le son I predicted to land 150th to 100th, but it scored a surprisingly good 68th place! It’s one of few songs that got a higher result than I predicted. It must be one of those songs whose fans are really passionate about it. I do know one fan who absolutely loves this entry and was really hoping it would land in the top 250.

15: Italy: Volevo essere un duro. You know the drill. Overly high prediction (15th to 20th), result that’s not quite as high but still decent (67th). Listening to this one alongside other Italian entries confirms that I get along with it much better than other Italian ballads like “Fai rumore” or “Due vite”.

14: For Denmark, Hallucination, I debated with myself whether I should count my prediction as correct. I guessed around 100th place, it scored 60th place which was a pleasant surprise since I love that song. I decided that 60th doesn’t fit the requirement of “around 100th”, but I wasn’t too far off! Another entry that scored higher than I predicted.

13: Now we have Latvia, Bur man laimi, my beloved winner of 2025. I decided to change my winner to it in this post, if you didn’t know. Seriously, Tautumeitas are fucking goddesses, all six of them. I predicted 20th to 30th place, so 52nd was quite close. A high enough result in ESC250 to please me.

12: Portugal, Deslocado is one of my biggest growers of 2025, so I was also pleased it did quite well at 49th place. My prediction was much higher at 5th to 12th since it became so viral across Latin America, but at this point I expected most entries to score lower than I predicted.

11: Iceland, Róa I predicted would land 30th to 40th, and it landed 41st. Technically that was outside my prediction range, but I decided it was close enough. God, I fucking love that song. As I said in my 2025 review, it’s the kind of hectic shit I eat right up.

10: Israel, New Day Will Rise I predicted would land around 20th, solely because last year its predecessor “Hurricane” scored 18th. I wasn’t too off at 40th, and since both songs shouldn’t have been allowed in the contest, I decided to use them as breaks to get snacks. “Hurricane” scored a little higher at 30th.

9: I overestimated how well Poland, Gaja would score, but not by too much. My prediction was 10th to 20th, and it landed at a respectable 38th. This makes sense because this is the proudest Polish fans have been of their entry in many years, and this pride has spread to fans from other countries.

8: My country’s entry, Germany, Baller, is a similar story: it is the biggest fan favorite Germany has sent since the winner “Satellite” in 2010, and it’s viewed positively by most German fans as well as me. I predicted 8th to 15th, and it landed at a lower but still strong 37th.

7: Now for Greece, Asteromáta, I actualy got my prediction right! I predicted it would finish around 30th, and it landed 36th. It’s a beautiful song and its ESC250 result proves how much of a fan favorite it is.

6: You might know I’m really not a fan of the contest’s winner Austria, Wasted Love, so I was amused it landed only at 35th place (I predicted 5th to 10th). That’s unusually low for a Eurovision winner. If you need proof that the results of Eurovision 2025 are a joke, the top three entries scored 35th, 40th, and 90th respectively in ESC250. Compare that to 2024 (7th, 6th, and 14th) and 2023 (2nd, 1st, and 27th). I don’t know why the results of 2025 are so damn weird. Even Israel’s ad campaigns don’t explain certain odd results.

5: Switzerland, Voyage is another prediction I got right! I guessed 25th to 40th, so I was pleased its result of 29th landed within that range. As we approached the top 100, I was a bit uncertain if we’d get to hear this one again, but I’m glad we did because it’s such a lovely understated song. Despite the televote’s zero points, its ESC250 result proves that it really is a fan favorite.

4: Lithuania, Tavo akys is very much the “Aijā” of 2025; a song that didn’t get a huge result in Eurovision but has a passionate cult following that I think will persist for a long time. I’m not surprised it did so well in ESC250, even if it was once again below my prediction: I guessed around 10th and it landed 25th.

3: The next two predictions, I got right! I correctly guessed Finland, Ich komme would land between 8th and 12th place, since it landed ninth. It’s a massive fan favorite, just not the most massive of the year.

2: Likewise, I was right to have a gut feeling Sweden, Bara bada bastu would score around fourth to seventh, since it landed sixth. It’s just so irresistibly awesome and it was still totally robbed on Eurovision night.

1: And finally… as we approached the top of ESC250, it became clear that the highest-scoring entry of 2025 would be a duel between Sweden and Albania, Zjerm, both huge fan favorites. I predicted “Zjerm” would land fifth to tenth, so I wasn’t expecting it to land as high as third, but I’m glad fans came together to show their love of this awesome song.

Alright, I think that’s it for Eurovision posts for the time being. I always have a fun time following ESC250 and it’s a great way to wrap up this year for me. See you all in 2026, for posts about things other than Eurovision!